Wednesday, May 26, 2010

Eur trade and Aud trade


Eur/Usd entry at 2307 level .confirmed counter trend trade we saw offers come in at the 40 level and with the reports coming out with slight neg sentiment I decided to cover my trade for + 20 especially in this market lately we have been in trades in positive to see the market reverse and close out for a neg especially with any kind of negative sentiment with the euro could cause broad offers and sell of f to see a extension downwards

Aud/Usd trade entry 8275 level...prices extended up towards the 83.16 level ...offers came in at just above yesterdays intraday high thus correcting itself to 61.8% level where a bid tone held prominently....currently long with a fairly low risk to the downside in anticipation to the 8350 level

Tuesday, May 25, 2010

Eur waves



Monday, May 24, 2010

EUR/JPY trade


EUR/JPY entry long @112.27 for an anticipated extension upwards keep the downside risk relatively
tight for an anticipated extension to the 85 level
though offers are coming in at the 20 ,21 level
 I closed out the trade at a +5 pip ,as my feeling is it wont take much to move price to the down side risk even though we are seeing 33 -35 bids ,I consider this trade a weak long position

Eur trade



Entry @ 1.2469 ...reduce half my position at 1.2429
stop at 10 pips below entry

cable trade

GBP trade ....entry 1.4518  .exit 1.4478 stopped out for loss

recovering

Hi there guys ...I know I have not been on lately or posted trades but unfortunately I was involved in a car accident ...but hopefully I am back in action

Thursday, April 22, 2010

22-04-10 GBP short trade

The Long Road

Once you begin on your road to trading success ,you will realize that you never stop learning ,reading ,keeping up to date with new thinking, new psychology,I am an Architect by profession ,if you had asked me ,if I would have foreseen myself reading economic news ,trying to keep up with current market sentiment in the financial market , I would have laughed at you.
 I find myself searching financial websites,lurking bookstores,starting off with the section for dummies ,economics for dummies, trying to absorb as much as possible.
This is only the start of your trading career ,usually when someone asks me to explain or teach them to trade I ask them to read the fist 10 pages of a strategy book based on ICWR strategy  that I read to teach myself to trade on a flight back from a business trip, I gauge there reaction to the book ,that usually gives me a clear indication whether they would enjoy trading .The book was a strategy book.so it wasn't completely mind numbing ,it was my  first insight into the trading world and as most strategy books go ,the future always looks paved with riches the easy way.
The Monday following my trip back I traded my first live contract ,thinking I was equipped to handle the market ,ready to make my millions,what a wake up call.

Now if that sounds familiar ,as I am sure it does ,you are in for a big shock ,2 years later I am only now starting to crack the markets ,after countless mind numbing books,sifting through self proclaimed market guru's,chief bank dealers selling mentor ships  who are absolute frauds ,and trust me it always comes out sooner or later ,but only once your hard earned cash has crossed hands ,never to be seen again.
I have come across one person in all the time that I started trading ,who I literally had to beg to teach me to trade ,who in my eyes is a professional trader names kept anonymous ,who by the way didn't part ways with his strategies ,which makes you ask the question WHY? and for the record He emigrated to the UK after he made millions on the market.

It boils down to various factors ....first ,you need to pay your school fees ,plain and simple ,we all had to pay our school fees so do you ,there is no easy way ,trust me on that, dont think after bieng promised that once you do this course promised by "experts " you will start making money in trading .YOU ARE FRESH MEAT
and you will definitely blow your first account ,and more likely, not be trading in the next 6 months.

Secondly for every winner there is a loser , why do we want to part ways with our insight on how to make money in the markets ,remember that if you are losing money, it means we are making money.
BECAREFULL of self  proclaimed Guru's ,strategies that never lose, trading doesn't just boil down to a strategy ,it boils down to insight into the market ,being able to look for turning points and trying to capitalize on those turning points  and in the attempt to find these turning points ,you begin to analyze the markets looking for areas of high probability trades ,and that doesn't come with a strategy.

If you are serious about making a career out of trading  and you have paid school fees ,take the journey to learn to trade the markets properly and invest the time.If you are serious about trading you can leave a comment I will help point you in the direction ,I am not selling any product ,nor am I offering mentor ship and I am definetly  no self proclaimed guru ,I am just a trader who has paid his school fees ,I will give you one word ............and the rest is up to you .

Tuesday, April 13, 2010

2nd trade GBP


Break of the Trendline from a inside bar which sometimes signals consolidation before a continaution further,
my first profit target has been filled

GBP trade for the day 13-04-10


Trade for the day of 13-04-10 (please see comments as the trade progresses)

Entry 1.5398 set my first profit take at  1.5418 20 points away from my entry where I will close  half my position if the order is filled and if I am not stopped out for a loss.

Monday, April 12, 2010

GBP trade for the day

as the trade progresses I will post comments....(read the posted comments)

To Contrary Belief

What are the masses doing is the question, I try and ask myself every time I trade ,what is human nature?
Price is determined by a constant battle back and and forth between the bulls and the bears thus price is determined by the market players .The playground becomes a constant sandpit of emotions ,fear ,greed ,hope ,desperation, a gene pool of emotion and human psychology .

I can go on and on about  human nature and its significance to trading,every trader is subject to ,or a better description,a "slave" to it , all boiling down to the big question ,am I on the right side of the fence? Or do I need to jump ship.
The reason I am writing this post is to record my thought patterns for Thursdays trade on the EUR/USD , I am sure that many of you ,who are trading , have read reports or have been following the news on Greece and its contribution to the decline in the value of the EUR.

From My analysis on Thursday as seen from my trade posted of the Euro,it was in a strong decline ,market sentiment was very negative ,various posts that I read were all in favor of shorting the EUR for possible further decline in value against the Green back.
The EUR was approaching a strong support level on the weekly charts, now the hardest part in trading is positioning yourself on the side opposite side to mass psychology , and I am not saying that every time you trade you must short when the market is strongly bullish ,but sometimes you got to keep in mind ,what are the BIG BOYS thinking ,as apposed to everyone else, and as we all know ,there is no infinite pool of liquidity flowing into the market ,thus if everyone is long in a certain position  , we wont all be making money ,be sure that for every winning position there is a losing position just on  the other side , or in the opposite cubicle to you ,your friend Robs account is basically being transferred into your account as you are trading , I like to think that I am on the winning side most of the time just to keep a confident psychology ....positive reinforcement .

Back to positioning yourself on the opposite side , now the question I asked myself  ,how many traders were positioned short on the Euro ,one answer , plenty ,and what happened to the EUR it bounced and rocketed up.A lot of traders jumped ship.or maybe they are still holding position thinking exactly the same as us now .....stay positioned opposite to what the masses are doing ,all I know is,on that trade I made money and I positioned myself to what the masses were "NOT" doing.

“A crowd never reasons, but follows its emotions; it accepts without proof what is suggested
or asserted.”“Buy when everyone else is selling and hold until everyone else is buying. This is more than
a catchy slogan . It is the very essence of successful investment”
John Paul Getty - How to be Rich

You should see from the above that if we can spot an emotional crowd and position ourselves
in the opposite direction we can make great profits. Its not of course enough just to
understand this, we need specific tools that can help us identify and act on these moves.
This is where education in understanding the markets as well as equipping yourelf with the right tools to essentially capitalize on mass hysteria
This  will help you not only identify an emotional crowd but will also help you act
upon these situations for big profits.

Thursday, April 8, 2010

EUR/USD trade offf weelky trendline support

Picking tops and bottoms in trading is always difficult ,but your probability is always higher when you have a confluence of signals that are generating a higher than average probability that the trade will go in your favor

Today's trade ,a long entry was taken ,what I anticipate as area of support form the weekly chart a  upward sloping trend line as seen in the chart below .






My entry signal was a candle pattern know as a Bullish morning star seen off weekly support with a stop sitting at the pivot low of the 8h00 candle ,my strategic plan for this trade is to to set up early in an anticipation of a trend line break higher to level 1.3350 hopefully the euro gains some ground on the greenback


Wednesday, April 7, 2010

Losing Trade AUD/USD

Aud/usd .....LOSING TRADE

Entry 92.86 , break of a bullish flag ,trading what I thought might be a continuation move higher, after the 30 minutes of the trade not going anywhere ,I decided to close the trade for a -5 pip loss thus preventing  a stop out which by the way happened minutes later ,reviewing my trade ,there was definitely an earlier entry that I could have looked at entering on the 50% retracement level forming support ,that would have at least got me into an positive position looking for a continuation break higher ,exposing the markets money ,but like always, hindsight is always profitable . Taking in a bit of knowledge that Richard gave me this morning ,if the trade is not going anywhere get out ..thanks Richard ,your advice saved me money lol

Great Privilege

I would like take a moment and thank a fellow trader for his time he took this morning with me , Richard Estrada to go through an in depth currency analysis of the euro futures for me and help me on my quest to become a professional trader ,Richard himself is a professional trader I think he mentioned that he has been trading professionally on his own managing accounts for 10 years ,I have to say that the time Richard took to explain and go through the analysis with me was amazing ,there was no catch, there was no obligation to any product what so ever ,his insight and clarity and the way that he approached the analysis was simply mind blowing , I have been trading for 2 years but when you meet and chat to traders like Richard , you realize that there is still so much to learn.That is what professional traders are mad up of .

I  would like to post an article he wrote .........I do realize that I only have 2 followers but trust me when I say that an  avalanche starts with the rolling of the first snow flake,and I hope that any future followers who are serious about trading visit his site and have a chance to speak and chat to him.

Currency Futures Trading Having a Battle Plan

Posted by: Richard Estrada  //  Category: Euro USD Futures
When you step into the currency futures market are you executing from an offensive plan of attack or are you trading based on the current price action? Think of you yourself as a combat soldier for a moment. Are you entering the battle zone with an idea of where the enemy is and how you might engage the enemy, or do feel like you’re being ambushed by the enemy?

If you feel the market is ambushing you, than maybe you’re not thinking ahead. Remember, for me trading is about trying to anticipate where the market might be and how I might engage the market at some point in the future. Think again like a combat soldier. You get intelligence from superiors on where you think the enemy is or will be, and then as a leader of your unit you create a plan on how you want to engage the enemy.

Currency Futures Trading is similar in my opinion and this why. As a currency trader you want to anticipate the market and create contingencies on potential market movement. Here is an example of a report I wrote for Monday September 14, 2009, which could be considered intelligence and should not be construed as a way to engage the enemy (trade triggers).

“If a currency trader want to be short the Japanese Yen then a break below the 24-bar moving average (blue) on the 60-minute chart could trigger a short position. In this scenario a currency trader is looking for the Japanese Yen to pull back to the 5-day moving average (1.0940). If the Japanese Yen were to run back through the 24-bar moving average by x amount ticks, then this could be a cue to abandon the short position.”


Remember, if you are thinking like a combat soldier, then this briefing (currency technical report) on the potential enemy whereabouts is in my opinion very valuable. Let’s take a look at the battlefield (see 60-minute chart below).


This chart shows a break below the 24-bar moving average (blue), which was a battle scenario I created the day before. How a currency trader enters the market based on the intelligence comes down to personal preference. Now, let’s take a closer look at the Japanese Yen by assessing the 5-minute chart (below).


Again, you can see where the price went through the 24-bar moving average and how it held below the average on a retest of the average hours later. Also notice that the 5-day moving average is still well below the price of the Japanese Yen. Thought the closing price of 1.1003 today and a projected opening price around the same price as the close would put the 5-day moving average somewhere near 1.0963, which is very close proximity to the low of Monday’s Action (1.0979).

To get tomorrow’s intelligence report, simply request the Free Currency Futures Trading Report. If you want live analysis, simply request to join me in the Trading War Room.
Thanks again and I look forward to your comments, suggestions and or questions.


Please visit his site, I do highly recommend it ...I do urge you to get into contact with him but only if you are serious about trading and becoming a professional trade as the time he takes and the insight he has to share is amazing and time consuming ,and as we all know the market waits for no man ,so please only if you are serious about trading.
I am going to copy this blog to Richard and hopefully he approves ......... and allows me to post this on my blog ...if not please be aware that it will be removed promptly
www.currencyfuturestrading.org

My 1000000 Dollar Challenge

Hi There Guys
what a start to a week ....Monday was a bank holiday for us in South Africa ,so nothing much happened and Tuesday was just a total waste of time ....didn't get round to trading at all .
But today has been an eventful day so far on the market for me I have traded 2 trades on the GBP/USD both successful trades ,one had the potential of turning bad ,but t6hats why I stress the importance of moving the stop up to break even as soon as possible especially when you are not sure of the markets nature .
Both trades ...traded were break out trades the fist trade my entry was 1.5265 .closed half my position at 20 point (pip) profit and moved my stop to break even where in half the time it took me to look move my stop to break even I was stopped out

My 2nd trade was an entry at 1.5225 short from a break out trade of a trend line .....closed half my position at 20 point profit again ,currently my stop is at at break even and still trading, I expect support to come in at 1.5180 lets see if it breaks through that level .if it break through that level 1.5149 support may be seen , remember we can can only interpret what is happening ...nothing is for sure




Thursday, April 1, 2010

My 1000000 Dollar Challenge

Hi There guys nothing much on the trading front .........been a bit of a slow day
waiting for setups .....I see there was a set up on the USD/JPY hourly chart,
unfortunately I was sitting on the beach soaking up the sun ...here in sunny Capetown South Africa
Now you see ...what I mean about discipline , my reasoning behind today and deciding to take today off ,is that tomorrow is a holiday, because of Easter weekend so there is not much volume .....
As well as it is extremely important that you don't chase trades,just for the sake of trading.
ALWAYS trade with an edge ....A MENTOR ONCE TOLD ME as well as countless trading books

THE MISSED USD/JPY TRADE

Unfortunately whilst sitting soaking up the sun I missed a trade setup that I might have entered
The set up was seen on the hourly chart bouncing off support at 93.31 a bullish pin bar or otherwise known as a Hammer ,the JPY has been in a bullish trend for the past month . Resistance definitely came in at around 93.70 but it is managing to push higher ........
now in hindsight there is always money to be made but in reality you have to play it safe .....The way I would have managed the that trade .....My entry would have been set at around 93.49 ,just above the high of the pin bar (see the red dotted line ) .I would have set a stop at 75% of the length of the pin bar at 93.36 level .

I would have banked half of my open position at 20 pips ,why since I am trading my own money,and you do not work for nothing ,nor start a bussiness for without wanting to make profit. The remainder of the other half of the position , to be closed out at 93.70 since weekly resistance was found at that level ,yes price has pushed higher ,bu t this would have been the trading plan risk reward ratio was 1:1 whilst writing this review it's occured to me that after banking the 20 pip the better option would have been to let the remaining open position to ride the market ,by moving my stop to break even and then trailing a stop.

My analysis of the market before then ,would have also revealed to me that market might have exhausted itself at the 93.67 level which is just below my 93.70 weekly resistance level.

A way to lock in more profit is ,once the trade has hit certain levels , to trail a high low stop with reference this trade ,you could trail the stop at each of the candle ,lows thus letting the market stop you out and therefore locking in more profit than anticipated.
As I blog and post more trades I will demonstrate my projection techniques that are pretty accurate in interpreting future market levels .

Happy trading guys



missed USD/JPY trade


Wednesday, March 31, 2010

My 1000000 Dollar Challenge

2 years have past , from when I fist took the initial step to teach myself to trade.the one thing has been pretty much certain ,is it has not been easy.
Firstly form trying to teach yourself to trade , to finding ,so called mentors to help you ,the only thing they helping you with ,is taking your money .It has been a long road and there are still many roads and paths to be
taken,some might be the wrong path but there will definitely be the right road at times .

The reason I am doing this blog is quite simple ....I have learned a great deal of trading techniques and I am still in the process of learning more I would like to share my experiences ,help those beginning by pointing them in the right path not to teach or mentor but just support you in this path as well as my own mission , to become a successful professional trader and show you that it is possible ,for the people who have traded ,you will know that the greatest battle is not learning to trade but is to dealing with you demons ,your emotional baggage whilst trading .......mine is discipline and we all know how much discipline it takes to trade.so now I have challenged myself to turn $1000 into 1million dollars muhahahahaha,why you ask ,let me blunt to put my money where my mouth is .....too put my balls on the chopping block ,so join me in my quest keep track with me post comments advice ,what ever you like.

let the challenge begin
please be patient with me as I learn to blog this is all new to me

My first Trade for the day GBP
/USD 31 March 2010 trend line break technique

I have certain entry rules that I have developed over time to try and keep me out of the bad trades and get into the momentum trades that go ....I jump onto the moving train. bank profits after 20 points ....why to pay myself ....so many times I try and sit in for the big moves but always turns and reverses
so get 20 and bank the twenty ....scale out of the position



The signal for me to close the position was the shooting star off support hinted that the bulls were either selling off and taking profit or signaling an early warning of an impending top both ways for me personally it was a good sign to close position and take profit

entry :1.5115
1st exit at 20 pips 50%of my position
2nd exit 1.5145 remaining 50%
total of 20 pips on first exit
total of 30pips on 2nd exit